The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Union and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Union 3-0 Lanus
Sunday, July 3 at 5pm in Argentine Primera Division
Sunday, July 3 at 5pm in Argentine Primera Division
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Union
Tuesday, June 28 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
Tuesday, June 28 at 11.15pm in Copa Sudamericana
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Nacional | 18 | 23 | 37 |
| 2 | Liverpool | 18 | 13 | 36 |
| 3 | Boston River | 18 | 7 | 34 |
We said: Union 1-1 Nacional
Nacional are in the driving seat in this one following last week's first-leg victory. While Union will hope that their home advantage can help in their quest to overturn the deficit, they have managed just one win in their last four games at the Estadio 15 de Abril. We predict the Uruguayan side will hold the hosts to a share of the spoils and go through on aggregate. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-2 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Nacional |
43.86% ( 0.04) | 23.56% ( 0.02) | 32.58% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 62% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
