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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 24 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 24 | 3 | 40 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 24 | 6 | 37 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 23 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 24 | -3 | 30 |
| 7 | Toronto | 24 | -8 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 58.19% ( | 22.25% ( | 19.56% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.41% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.88% ( | 45.12% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.53% ( | 67.46% ( |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.79% ( | 15.2% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.15% ( | 43.84% ( |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.99% ( | 37.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.2% ( | 73.8% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 1-0 @ 10.59% ( 2-0 @ 9.98% ( 2-1 @ 9.92% 3-0 @ 6.27% ( 3-1 @ 6.23% ( 3-2 @ 3.1% ( 4-0 @ 2.95% ( 4-1 @ 2.93% ( 4-2 @ 1.46% ( 5-0 @ 1.11% ( 5-1 @ 1.11% Other @ 2.53% Total : 58.18% | 1-1 @ 10.53% 0-0 @ 5.63% ( 2-2 @ 4.93% ( 3-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.24% | 0-1 @ 5.59% ( 1-2 @ 5.24% ( 0-2 @ 2.78% ( 1-3 @ 1.74% ( 2-3 @ 1.63% ( 0-3 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 1.66% Total : 19.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New England RevolutionNew England | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 17 |
| 2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 17 |
| 3 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Toronto | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | DC United | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -14 | 3 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Dallas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
| 10 | Austin FCAustin | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 8 |
| 11 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 3 |
