The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Estudiantes and Fortaleza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Arsenal 2-1 Estudiantes
Monday, July 4 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division
Monday, July 4 at 9pm in Argentine Primera Division
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Racing Club | 14 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
Last Game: Coritiba 2-1 Fortaleza
Sunday, July 3 at 10.45pm in Brasileiro
Sunday, July 3 at 10.45pm in Brasileiro
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 18 | Cuiaba | 15 | -6 | 16 |
| 19 | Juventude | 15 | -13 | 11 |
| 20 | Fortaleza | 15 | -8 | 10 |
We said: Estudiantes 1-0 Fortaleza
Fatigue seems to have taken a toll on each team, though Estudiantes have been at their best at home, which should be just enough to see them through to the quarter-finals. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 59.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 18.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (5.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Fortaleza |
59.84% ( 0.01) | 22.05% ( 0.01) | 18.1% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.44% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
