

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Macarthur win with a probability of 50.76%. A win for Wellington Phoenix has a probability of 28.34% and a draw has a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macarthur win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 3-1 (6.26%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win is 1-2 (6.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (8.37%).
| Result | ||
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 50.76% ( | 20.91% ( | 28.34% ( |
| Both teams to score 69.36% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.97% ( | 29.03% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.99% ( | 50.01% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.97% ( | 12.02% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 62.5% ( | 37.49% ( |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.84% ( | 21.15% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.99% ( | 54.01% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Macarthur | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 8.86% ( 3-1 @ 6.26% ( 2-0 @ 5.71% ( 1-0 @ 5.39% ( 3-2 @ 4.86% ( 3-0 @ 4.03% ( 4-1 @ 3.31% ( 4-2 @ 2.58% ( 4-0 @ 2.13% ( 5-1 @ 1.4% ( 4-3 @ 1.33% ( 5-2 @ 1.09% ( 5-0 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.89% Total : 50.76% | 1-1 @ 8.37% ( 2-2 @ 6.89% ( 0-0 @ 2.54% ( 3-3 @ 2.52% ( Other @ 0.59% Total : 20.91% | 1-2 @ 6.5% ( 0-1 @ 3.95% ( 2-3 @ 3.57% ( 1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0-2 @ 3.07% ( 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 2-4 @ 1.39% ( 1-4 @ 1.31% ( 3-4 @ 0.98% ( Other @ 2.63% Total : 28.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 18 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 36 |
| 2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 17 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Macarthur | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 28 |
| 5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 26 |
| 6 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 25 |
| 7 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 22 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 30 | 40 | -10 | 21 |
| 9 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 31 | 33 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 18 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 | 33 | -18 | 11 |
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