Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (9.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.
