Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.24%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 22.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
