Serie A | Gameweek 31
Apr 6, 2025 at 5pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Atalanta0 - 1Lazio
We said: Atalanta BC 1-2 Lazio
Once free-scoring, both teams have recently dried up in attack - but their last 11 league meetings have averaged 3.7 goals per game. Lazio have registered more goals than any other Serie A side in the final half-hour this season (25) - including six during stoppage time - so they may win with a late twist and prolong La Dea's pain. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 25.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 2-0 (8.55%). The likeliest Lazio win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Lazio |
49.47% ( -0.3) | 24.58% ( 0.11) | 25.96% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 54.07% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
