Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orenburg win with a probability of 37.73%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 35.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Orenburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.59%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.