Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 53.8%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Orenburg had a probability of 22.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.85%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.5%), while for a Orenburg win it was 0-1 (6.84%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.