Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Akhmat Grozny win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Akhmat Grozny win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.65%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Akhmat Grozny would win this match.