Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 57.94%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 20.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 1-2 (5.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York Red Bulls would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United |
| 57.94% ( | 21.63% ( | 20.43% ( |
| Both teams to score 56.95% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.89% ( | 41.11% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.5% ( | 63.5% ( |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.06% ( | 13.94% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.59% ( | 41.41% ( |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.18% ( | 33.82% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.51% ( | 70.48% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Atlanta United |
| 2-1 @ 9.92% ( 1-0 @ 9.29% ( 2-0 @ 9.15% ( 3-1 @ 6.52% ( 3-0 @ 6.01% ( 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 4-1 @ 3.21% ( 4-0 @ 2.96% ( 4-2 @ 1.74% ( 5-1 @ 1.27% ( 5-0 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 3.18% Total : 57.94% | 1-1 @ 10.07% ( 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0-0 @ 4.71% ( 3-3 @ 1.28% ( Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.63% | 1-2 @ 5.46% ( 0-1 @ 5.11% ( 0-2 @ 2.77% ( 1-3 @ 1.97% ( 2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0-3 @ 1% ( Other @ 2.17% Total : 20.43% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 27 |
| 2 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 26 |
| 3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 4 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 24 |
| 5 | New York City FCNY City | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Nashville SCNashville | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 22 |
| 9 | Orlando City | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 21 |
| 11 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 21 |
| 12 | DC United | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Toronto | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 13 |
| 14 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 13 |
| 15 | CF MontrealMontreal | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 6 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Portland TimbersPortland | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 22 |
| 4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 20 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 19 |
| 6 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 22 | 5 | 17 |
| 8 | Dallas | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 17 |
| 10 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 13 |
| 11 | Houston DynamoHouston | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 13 |
| 13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 7 |
| 15 | San Diego FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
