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Major League Soccer

New York City
Major League Soccer
May 17, 2025 at 9.30pm UK
Citi Field
New York Red Bulls

NY City
2 - 0
NY Red Bulls

Martinez (13'), Moralez (50')
Fernandez (30')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Eile (42'), Nealis (54'), Duncan (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New York City FC

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last Game: DC United 0-0 NY City
Thursday, May 15 at 12.30am in MLS Playoffs

New York Red Bulls

All competitions
Major League Soccer
Last Game: Nashville 2-1 NY Red Bulls
Thursday, May 15 at 1.30am in MLS Playoffs

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 48.93%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 27.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for New York City FC in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for New York City FC.

Result
New York City FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
48.93% (-0.535 -0.54)23.5% (0.22 0.22)27.57% (0.314 0.31)
Both teams to score 59.09% (-0.504 -0.5)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.8% (-0.783 -0.78)42.2% (0.78100000000001 0.78)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.39% (-0.788 -0.79)64.6% (0.788 0.79)
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.58% (-0.498 -0.5)17.41% (0.496 0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.15% (-0.876 -0.88)47.85% (0.874 0.87)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
71.55% (-0.179 -0.18)28.44% (0.175 0.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
35.79% (-0.225 -0.23)64.2% (0.22299999999999 0.22)
Score Analysis
    New York City FC 48.93%
    New York Red Bulls 27.57%
    Draw 23.49%
New York City FCDrawNew York Red Bulls
2-1 @ 9.51% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
1-0 @ 8.66% (0.161 0.16)
2-0 @ 7.57% (0.018 0.02)
3-1 @ 5.54% (-0.106 -0.11)
3-0 @ 4.41% (-0.063 -0.06)
3-2 @ 3.48% (-0.085 -0.09)
4-1 @ 2.42% (-0.087 -0.09)
4-0 @ 1.93% (-0.06 -0.06)
4-2 @ 1.52% (-0.062 -0.06)
Other @ 3.89%
Total : 48.93%
1-1 @ 10.88% (0.15 0.15)
2-2 @ 5.98% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
0-0 @ 4.95% (0.171 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.46% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.49%
1-2 @ 6.84% (0.06 0.06)
0-1 @ 6.23% (0.185 0.19)
0-2 @ 3.91% (0.097 0.1)
1-3 @ 2.87% (0.011 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.51% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.64% (0.033 0.03)
1-4 @ 0.9% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 27.57%

How you voted: NY City vs NY Red Bulls

New York City FC
70.0%
Draw
10.0%
New York Red Bulls
20.0%
10
Head to Head
Nov 23, 2024 10.30pm
MLS Cup Conference Semi-Finals
NY City
0-2
NY Red Bulls

Sands (34'), O'Toole (39')
Carballo (16'), Vanzeir (25')
Edelman (28')
> Preview
Sep 29, 2024 12.30am
NY Red Bulls
1-5
NY City
Vanzeir (28')
Reyes (14'), Schwarz (15'), Stroud (90+5')
Moralez (5'), Martinez (7', 45+5'), Perea (30'), Gray (67')
> Preview
May 19, 2024 12.30am
NY City
2-1
NY Red Bulls
Wolf (3'), Bakrar (64')
Sands (32')
Harper (45+1')
Harper (25'), Amaya (66'), Nealis (67'), Tolkin (90'), Schwarz (90+2')
Nealis (90+3')
> Preview
Sep 16, 2023 8.30pm
NY City
0-0
NY Red Bulls
Pellegrini (42'), Morales (63'), Sands (90+3')
Barlow (48'), Ndam (69'), Harper (90+7'), Tolkin (90+7')
> Preview
May 14, 2023 12.30am
NY Red Bulls
1-0
NY City
Fernandez (76')
Reyes (67'), Nealis (72'), Tolkin (81'), Casseres Jr (88')

Parks (37')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS

Eastern Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia1483324121227
2Columbus Crew147522218426
3FC CincinnatiCincinnati158252121026
4Inter MiamiInter Miami137332619724
5New York City FCNY City157352017324
6Nashville SCNashville146442417722
7Charlotte FCCharlotte FC147162218422
8Chicago Fire156452828022
9Orlando City145632518721
10New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls146352115621
11New England RevolutionNew England136341510521
12DC United144461526-1116
13Toronto143471619-313
14Atlanta UnitedAtlanta153481727-1013
15CF MontrealMontreal141310725-186

Western Conference

TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver1384124101428
2Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd1484225131228
3Portland TimbersPortland136432320322
4Seattle SoundersSeattle145542318520
5Los Angeles FCLos Angeles135442120119
6Colorado RapidsColorado135441618-219
7San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes145272722517
8Dallas144551522-717
9Austin FCAustin14527817-917
10St Louis City143471118-713
11Houston DynamoHouston143471422-813
12Real Salt LakeSalt Lake144191321-813
13Sporting Kansas CityKansas133281923-411
14Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy131481229-177
15San Diego FC00000000
> Full Version


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