Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 28.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.45%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cruz Azul would win this match.
