Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 48.06%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Pumas had a probability of 25.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.22%) and 2-0 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Pumas win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
