

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 63.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 16.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.11%) and 1-2 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.51%), while for a Villarreal win it was 1-0 (4.56%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Barcelona | 
| 16.05% ( | 20.18% ( | 63.77% ( | 
| Both teams to score 53.38% ( | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 58.26% ( | 41.73% ( | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 35.86% ( | 64.13% ( | 
| Villarreal Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 60.95% ( | 39.05% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.23% ( | 75.77% ( | 
| Barcelona Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.58% ( | 12.42% ( | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.67% ( | 38.32% ( | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Villarreal | Draw | Barcelona | 
| 1-0 @ 4.56% ( 2-1 @ 4.47% ( 2-0 @ 2.14% ( 3-2 @ 1.46% ( 3-1 @ 1.4% ( Other @ 2.01% Total : 16.05%  | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( 0-0 @ 4.85% ( 2-2 @ 4.67% ( 3-3 @ 1.02% ( Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.18%  | 0-2 @ 10.55% ( 0-1 @ 10.11% ( 1-2 @ 9.92% ( 0-3 @ 7.34% ( 1-3 @ 6.9% ( 0-4 @ 3.83% ( 1-4 @ 3.6% ( 2-3 @ 3.24% ( 2-4 @ 1.69% ( 0-5 @ 1.6% ( 1-5 @ 1.5% ( Other @ 3.49% Total : 63.76%  | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 | 
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 | 
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 | 
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 | 
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 | 
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 | 
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 | 
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 | 
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 | 
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 | 
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 | 
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 | 
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 | 
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 | 
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 | 
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 | 
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
