

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 55.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.66%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (5.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Villarreal in this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Girona | 
| 55.62% (  0.44) | 22.65% (  -0.09) | 21.72% (  -0.35) | 
| Both teams to score 55.45% (  -0.17) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.96% (  0) | 44.03% (  -0.01) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.58% (  0) | 66.42% (  -0.01) | 
| Villarreal Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 84.31% (  0.15) | 15.69% (  -0.15) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.26% (  0.28) | 44.74% (  -0.28) | 
| Girona Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 65.77% (  -0.32) | 34.23% (  0.32) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.07% (  -0.34) | 70.93% (  0.34) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Villarreal | Draw | Girona | 
| 1-0 @ 9.95% (  0.05) 2-1 @ 9.88% (  0.01) 2-0 @ 9.21% (  0.09) 3-1 @ 6.1% (  0.04) 3-0 @ 5.69% (  0.09) 3-2 @ 3.27% (  -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.82% (  0.03) 4-0 @ 2.63% (  0.05) 4-2 @ 1.51% (  0.01) 5-1 @ 1.05% (  0.02) 5-0 @ 0.98% (  0.03) Other @ 2.54% Total : 55.62% | 1-1 @ 10.66% (  -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.37% (  -0) 2-2 @ 5.29% (  -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.17% (  -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.65% | 0-1 @ 5.76% (  -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.72% (  -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.09% (  -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.04% (  -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.89% (  -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.1% (  -0.03) Other @ 2.13% Total : 21.72% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 | 
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 | 
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 | 
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 | 
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 | 
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 | 
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 | 
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 | 
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 | 
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 | 
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 | 
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 | 
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 | 
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 | 
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 | 
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 | 
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