Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 62.84%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 15.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.19%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (5.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
| 62.84% ( | 21.44% ( | 15.72% ( |
| Both teams to score 48.5% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.15% ( | 47.85% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.97% ( | 70.03% ( |
| Barcelona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.38% ( | 14.62% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 57.27% ( | 42.73% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.81% ( | 43.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.55% ( | 79.45% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Barcelona | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 12.14% 2-0 @ 11.67% 2-1 @ 9.8% 3-0 @ 7.48% ( 3-1 @ 6.28% ( 4-0 @ 3.6% ( 4-1 @ 3.02% ( 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 5-0 @ 1.38% 4-2 @ 1.27% ( 5-1 @ 1.16% Other @ 2.4% Total : 62.83% | 1-1 @ 10.19% 0-0 @ 6.32% ( 2-2 @ 4.11% ( Other @ 0.82% Total : 21.44% | 0-1 @ 5.3% ( 1-2 @ 4.28% ( 0-2 @ 2.23% 1-3 @ 1.2% 2-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 1.57% Total : 15.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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