Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pumas win with a probability of 45.54%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 26.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pumas win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.3%) and 2-1 (8.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pumas would win this match.
