Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Santos Laguna had a probability of 35.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Santos Laguna win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.
