Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 26.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-2 (6.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
| 49.79% ( | 23.51% ( | 26.7% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.31% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.09% ( | 42.91% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.69% ( | 65.31% ( |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.64% ( | 17.36% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 52.25% ( | 47.75% ( |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.55% ( | 29.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.55% ( | 65.45% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Exeter City |
| 2-1 @ 9.58% 1-0 @ 8.95% ( 2-0 @ 7.84% ( 3-1 @ 5.59% ( 3-0 @ 4.58% ( 3-2 @ 3.42% ( 4-1 @ 2.45% ( 4-0 @ 2% 4-2 @ 1.5% ( Other @ 3.89% Total : 49.79% | 1-1 @ 10.94% ( 2-2 @ 5.86% ( 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 3-3 @ 1.39% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.5% | 1-2 @ 6.69% ( 0-1 @ 6.25% ( 0-2 @ 3.82% ( 1-3 @ 2.73% ( 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0-3 @ 1.56% Other @ 3.28% Total : 26.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 42 | 27 | 8 | 7 | 73 | 45 | 28 | 89 |
| 2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 42 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 87 | 33 | 54 | 88 |
| 3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 43 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 75 | 36 | 39 | 87 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 42 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 74 | 38 | 36 | 82 |
| 5 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 43 | 23 | 4 | 16 | 73 | 51 | 22 | 73 |
| 6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 42 | 20 | 12 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 72 |
| 7 | Derby CountyDerby | 43 | 20 | 12 | 11 | 65 | 44 | 21 | 72 |
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 43 | 20 | 8 | 15 | 57 | 44 | 13 | 68 |
| 9 | Portsmouth | 43 | 16 | 17 | 10 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 65 |
| 10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 43 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 63 | 59 | 4 | 58 |
| 11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 42 | 12 | 20 | 10 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 56 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 42 | 16 | 8 | 18 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 56 |
| 13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 43 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 54 |
| 14 | Exeter CityExeter | 43 | 14 | 11 | 18 | 60 | 58 | 2 | 53 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 41 | 14 | 10 | 17 | 55 | 64 | -9 | 52 |
| 16 | Burton Albion | 41 | 13 | 10 | 18 | 55 | 77 | -22 | 49 |
| 17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 47 |
| 18 | Port Vale | 43 | 12 | 10 | 21 | 43 | 65 | -22 | 46 |
| 19 | MK Dons | 43 | 11 | 10 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 43 |
| 20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 42 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 41 |
| 21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 42 | 11 | 7 | 24 | 36 | 63 | -27 | 40 |
| 22 | Morecambe | 43 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 39 | 71 | -32 | 38 |
| 23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 42 | 9 | 11 | 22 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 38 |
| R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 43 | 6 | 9 | 28 | 30 | 81 | -51 | 27 |
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