| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | -2 | 7 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Forest Green Rovers | 7 | -9 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Bolton Wanderers | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Derby County | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Barnsley | 7 | 1 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Lincoln City had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Lincoln City win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lincoln City | Draw | Derby County |
| 30.22% ( | 26.92% ( | 42.86% ( |
| Both teams to score 49.74% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.79% ( | 55.21% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.56% ( | 76.44% ( |
| Lincoln City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.77% ( | 33.23% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.16% ( | 69.84% ( |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.5% ( | 25.5% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.65% ( | 60.35% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Lincoln City | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( 2-1 @ 7.03% ( 2-0 @ 5.14% ( 3-1 @ 2.58% ( 3-0 @ 1.89% ( 3-2 @ 1.76% ( Other @ 2.48% Total : 30.22% | 1-1 @ 12.75% ( 0-0 @ 8.48% ( 2-2 @ 4.8% ( Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.91% | 0-1 @ 11.58% ( 1-2 @ 8.72% ( 0-2 @ 7.91% ( 1-3 @ 3.97% ( 0-3 @ 3.6% ( 2-3 @ 2.19% ( 1-4 @ 1.36% ( 0-4 @ 1.23% ( Other @ 2.31% Total : 42.86% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 67 |
| 2 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 53 | 20 | 33 | 65 |
| 3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 59 |
| 4 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 31 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 56 | 31 | 25 | 57 |
| 5 | Derby CountyDerby | 30 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 25 | 23 | 54 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 29 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 53 |
| 7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 43 | 29 | 14 | 50 |
| 8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 48 |
| 9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 29 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 44 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 41 |
| 11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 41 | 4 | 40 |
| 12 | Exeter CityExeter | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 39 |
| 13 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 29 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 38 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 38 |
| 15 | Port Vale | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 36 |
| 17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 35 |
| 18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 33 |
| 19 | Burton Albion | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 38 | 57 | -19 | 31 |
| 20 | MK Dons | 31 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 29 |
| 21 | Morecambe | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 28 |
| 22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 29 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 47 | -22 | 27 |
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 25 | 51 | -26 | 26 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 32 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | 59 | -34 | 22 |
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