Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlton Athletic win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlton Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Charlton Athletic would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Exeter City |
| 40.1% ( | 26.42% ( | 33.48% ( |
| Both teams to score 52.42% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.7% ( | 52.3% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.01% ( | 73.99% ( |
| Charlton Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.37% ( | 25.63% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.48% ( | 60.52% ( |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.49% ( | 29.51% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.47% ( | 65.52% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Charlton Athletic | Draw | Exeter City |
| 1-0 @ 10.29% ( 2-1 @ 8.55% ( 2-0 @ 7.01% ( 3-1 @ 3.88% ( 3-0 @ 3.18% ( 3-2 @ 2.37% ( 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 4-0 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.4% Total : 40.09% | 1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0-0 @ 7.56% ( 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 3-3 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.41% | 0-1 @ 9.23% ( 1-2 @ 7.67% ( 0-2 @ 5.63% ( 1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0-3 @ 2.29% ( 2-3 @ 2.12% ( 1-4 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.46% Total : 33.48% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 28 | 18 | 7 | 3 | 51 | 29 | 22 | 61 |
| 2 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 27 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 47 | 18 | 29 | 58 |
| 3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 53 | 28 | 25 | 54 |
| 4 | Derby CountyDerby | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 50 |
| 5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 29 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 23 | 14 | 50 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 46 |
| 7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 43 | 32 | 11 | 41 |
| 8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 27 | 8 | 41 |
| 9 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 41 |
| 10 | Exeter CityExeter | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 38 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 34 | 32 | 2 | 37 |
| 12 | Bristol Rovers | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 37 |
| 13 | Port Vale | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 36 |
| 14 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 34 |
| 16 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 26 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 31 |
| 17 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 27 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 29 |
| 18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 29 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 27 |
| 20 | MK Dons | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 25 | 40 | -15 | 25 |
| 21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 24 | 41 | -17 | 25 |
| 22 | Burton Albion | 27 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 25 |
| 23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 25 |
| 24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 24 | 55 | -31 | 21 |
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