

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 47.02%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Elche had a probability of 26.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.09%) and 1-2 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.62%), while for a Elche win it was 1-0 (8.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Elche | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 26.18% | 26.8% | 47.02% |
| Both teams to score 47.57% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.23% | 56.77% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.29% | 77.71% |
| Elche Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.72% | 37.28% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.94% | 74.06% |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.85% | 24.15% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.53% | 58.47% |
| Score Analysis |
| Elche | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
| 1-0 @ 8.89% 2-1 @ 6.23% 2-0 @ 4.38% 3-1 @ 2.05% 3-2 @ 1.46% 3-0 @ 1.44% Other @ 1.73% Total : 26.18% | 1-1 @ 12.62% 0-0 @ 9% 2-2 @ 4.42% Other @ 0.75% Total : 26.8% | 0-1 @ 12.79% 0-2 @ 9.09% 1-2 @ 8.97% 0-3 @ 4.3% 1-3 @ 4.25% 2-3 @ 2.1% 0-4 @ 1.53% 1-4 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.49% Total : 47.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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