

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 53.98%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 24.75% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.08%) and 1-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (6.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| NEC | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 53.98% ( | 21.26% ( | 24.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 64.36% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.94% ( | 34.06% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.06% ( | 55.94% ( |
| NEC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.2% ( | 12.8% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.88% ( | 39.12% ( |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.81% ( | 26.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.72% ( | 61.28% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| NEC | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 2-0 @ 7.08% ( 1-0 @ 6.89% ( 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 3-0 @ 4.85% ( 3-2 @ 4.36% ( 4-1 @ 3.34% ( 4-0 @ 2.49% ( 4-2 @ 2.24% ( 5-1 @ 1.37% ( 5-0 @ 1.03% ( 4-3 @ 1% ( 5-2 @ 0.92% ( Other @ 2.41% Total : 53.98% | 1-1 @ 9.23% ( 2-2 @ 6.36% ( 0-0 @ 3.35% ( 3-3 @ 1.95% ( Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.26% | 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0-1 @ 4.49% ( 0-2 @ 3.01% ( 2-3 @ 2.84% ( 1-3 @ 2.76% ( 0-3 @ 1.34% ( 2-4 @ 0.95% ( 1-4 @ 0.93% ( Other @ 2.25% Total : 24.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ajax | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 63 | 27 | 36 | 74 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 89 | 34 | 55 | 67 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 62 |
| 4 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 62 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 48 |
| 6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 48 | 34 | 14 | 47 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 6 | 47 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 40 |
| 9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 36 |
| 10 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 35 |
| 11 | Groningen | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 35 |
| 12 | Heracles | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 35 |
| 13 | NECNijmegen | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 42 | 44 | -2 | 33 |
| 14 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 32 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 31 |
| 16 | Willem II | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 50 | -20 | 24 |
| 17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 31 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 21 | 59 | -38 | 20 |
| 18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 35 | 62 | -27 | 19 |
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