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EFL Cup

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EFL Cup | Round of 16
Oct 29, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Stoke logo

Southampton
3 - 2
Stoke

Harwood-Bellis (19', 19', 19', 19'), Armstrong (35' pen., 35' pen., 35' pen.), Bree (88')
Tchamadeu (66'), Armstrong (66'), Cornet (90+2')
FT(HT: 7-3)
Famiwuya (45', 45', 45'), Cannon (54', 54', 54')
Armstrong (66'), Tchamadeu (66')

The Match

Match Report

Premier League Southampton survive a Stoke City fightback to seal their place in the EFL Cup quarter-finals with a narrow 3-2 victory.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Southampton and Stoke City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Man City 1-0 Southampton
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in Premier League

Stoke City

All competitions
EFL Cup
Last Game: Sheff Utd 2-0 Stoke
Saturday, October 26 at 3pm in Championship

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 30.27% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.

Result
SouthamptonDrawStoke City
45.74% (3.685 3.69)23.99% (-0.484 -0.48)30.27% (-3.203 -3.2)
Both teams to score 59.29% (0.26 0.26)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.22% (0.962 0.96)42.78% (-0.964 -0.96)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.82% (0.948 0.95)65.18% (-0.94999999999999 -0.95)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.1% (2.001 2)18.9% (-2.003 -2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.61% (3.23 3.23)50.38% (-3.234 -3.23)
Stoke City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.11% (-1.523 -1.52)26.89% (1.521 1.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.79% (-2.043 -2.04)62.2% (2.041 2.04)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 45.75%
    Stoke City 30.27%
    Draw 23.99%
SouthamptonDrawStoke City
2-1 @ 9.26% (0.353 0.35)
1-0 @ 8.47% (0.167 0.17)
2-0 @ 7.05% (0.557 0.56)
3-1 @ 5.15% (0.495 0.49)
3-0 @ 3.92% (0.527 0.53)
3-2 @ 3.38% (0.19 0.19)
4-1 @ 2.14% (0.323 0.32)
4-0 @ 1.63% (0.304 0.3)
4-2 @ 1.41% (0.159 0.16)
Other @ 3.34%
Total : 45.75%
1-1 @ 11.12% (-0.26 -0.26)
2-2 @ 6.08% (-0.028 -0.03)
0-0 @ 5.08% (-0.22 -0.22)
3-3 @ 1.48% (0.021 0.02)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.99%
1-2 @ 7.3% (-0.505 -0.51)
0-1 @ 6.67% (-0.598 -0.6)
0-2 @ 4.38% (-0.605 -0.61)
1-3 @ 3.2% (-0.372 -0.37)
2-3 @ 2.66% (-0.13 -0.13)
0-3 @ 1.92% (-0.362 -0.36)
1-4 @ 1.05% (-0.174 -0.17)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 30.27%

How you voted: Southampton vs Stoke

Southampton
74.8%
Draw
12.6%
Stoke City
12.6%
159
Head to Head
Apr 27, 2024 3pm
Gameweek 45
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Cundle (38')
> Preview
Oct 3, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Stoke
0-1
Southampton

Hoever (44'), Pearson (45'), Johnson (86'), Leris (87')
Armstrong (41')
Downes (86')
> Preview
Mar 3, 2018 3pm
Southampton
0-0
Stoke
Cameron (41')
> Match Report
Sep 30, 2017 3pm
Stoke
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Biram Diouf (40'), Crouch (85')
Allen (30')
Yoshida (76')
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> Match Report
May 21, 2017 3pm
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> Match Report
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLiverpool38259486414584
2Arsenal382014469343574
3Manchester CityMan City38218972442871
4Chelsea38209964432169
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle382061268472166
6Aston Villa38199105851766
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest381981158461265
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton38161396659761
9Bournemouth3815111258461256
10Brentford38168146657956
11Fulham38159145454054
12Crystal Palace381314115151053
13Everton381115124244-248
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham381110174662-1643
15Manchester UnitedMan Utd38119184454-1042
16Wolverhampton WanderersWolves38126205469-1542
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs38115226465-138
RLeicester CityLeicester3867253380-4725
RIpswich TownIpswich38410243682-4622
RSouthampton3826302686-6012
> Premier League Full Table


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