Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 44.14%. A win for Magdeburg had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Magdeburg win was 1-0 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
