MX23RW : Tuesday, April 29 16:04:14| >> :300:86500:86500:
Blackburn logo
Bristol City
Burnley logo
Cardiff City logo
Coventry City
Derby logo
Hull logo
Leeds logo
Luton Town
Middlesbrough logo
Millwall logo
Norwich logo
Oxford United
Plymouth Argyle
Portsmouth
Preston North End logo
QPR logo
Sheffield United logo
Sheffield Wednesday logo
Stoke logo
Sunderland
Swansea logo
Watford logo
West Brom logo
Swansea logo
Championship | Gameweek 40
Apr 5, 2025 at 3pm UK
Swansea.com Stadium
Derby logo

Swansea
1 - 0
Derby

Eom (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Forsyth (67'), Harness (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Swansea City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Leeds 2-2 Swansea
Saturday, March 29 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Derby 2-0 Preston
Wednesday, April 2 at 7.45pm in Championship

We said: Swansea City 1-1 Derby County

Derby may be full of confidence after winning four games in a row, but they have won just two of their 19 away league matches this season, and with that in mind, we think that they will have to be content with a point when they travel to the Swansea.com Stadium. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Swansea City win with a probability of 49.13%. A draw has a probability of 25.6% and a win for Derby County has a probability of 25.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Swansea City win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (12.18%), while for a Derby County win it is 0-1 (7.96%).

Result
Swansea CityDrawDerby County
49.13% (0.495 0.49) 25.65% (-0.18 -0.18) 25.22% (-0.319 -0.32)
Both teams to score 50.09% (0.23800000000001 0.24)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.91% (0.45399999999999 0.45)53.09% (-0.458 -0.46)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.33% (0.385 0.39)74.67% (-0.39 -0.39)
Swansea City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.37% (0.404 0.4)21.63% (-0.408 -0.41)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.25% (0.617 0.62)54.75% (-0.62 -0.62)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.92% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)36.08% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.14% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)72.86% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Swansea City 49.12%
    Derby County 25.22%
    Draw 25.65%
Swansea CityDrawDerby County
1-0 @ 11.94% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-1 @ 9.33% (0.053999999999998 0.05)
2-0 @ 9.15% (0.06 0.06)
3-1 @ 4.76% (0.085 0.09)
3-0 @ 4.67% (0.086 0.09)
3-2 @ 2.43% (0.042 0.04)
4-1 @ 1.82% (0.055 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.79% (0.055 0.05)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 2.32%
Total : 49.12%
1-1 @ 12.18% (-0.07 -0.07)
0-0 @ 7.8% (-0.142 -0.14)
2-2 @ 4.75% (0.024 0.02)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 25.65%
0-1 @ 7.96% (-0.15 -0.15)
1-2 @ 6.21% (-0.044 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.06% (-0.079000000000001 -0.08)
1-3 @ 2.11% (-0.016 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.62% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.38% (-0.028 -0.03)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 25.22%

How you voted: Swansea vs Derby

Swansea City
37.5%
Draw
25.0%
Derby County
37.5%
32
Head to Head
Nov 27, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 17
Derby
1-2
Swansea
Mendez-Laing (65' pen.)
Elder (34'), Nelson (88'), Thompson (90+1')
Vipotnik (2'), Pereira Martins (14')
Peart-Harris (73')
Apr 9, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 41
Swansea
2-1
Derby
Piroe (8', 16')
Grimes (68'), Wolf (84')
Lawrence (22' pen.)
Morrison (81')
Oct 2, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 11
Derby
0-0
Swansea
Forsyth (45'), Willis (82'), Byrne (89')
May 1, 2021 3pm
Gameweek 45
Swansea
2-1
Derby
Whittaker (63'), Roberts (66')
Whittaker (62'), Lowe (67')
Lawrence (48')
Byrne (26')
Dec 16, 2020 5.30pm
Gameweek 19
Derby
2-0
Swansea

Ayew (67')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Leeds UnitedLeeds452813493296497
2Burnley452716266155197
3Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd452871062352789
4Sunderland4521131158431576
5Bristol City451716125753467
6Coventry CityCoventry45199176258466
7Millwall451812154646066
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn45198185247565
9Middlesbrough4518101764541064
10West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom451419125244861
11Swansea CitySwansea45179194853-560
12Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds451512185968-957
13Watford45168215260-856
14Norwich CityNorwich451315176766154
15Queens Park RangersQPR451314185263-1153
16Portsmouth451411205770-1353
17Oxford UnitedOxford Utd451313194662-1652
18Stoke CityStoke451214194562-1750
19Derby CountyDerby451310224856-849
20Preston North EndPreston451019164657-1149
21Luton TownLuton451310224264-2249
22Hull City451212214353-1048
23Plymouth ArgylePlymouth451113215086-3646
24Cardiff CityCardiff45917194669-2344


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!