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Brest logo
Champions League | Knockout Round Playoffs | 1st Leg
Feb 11, 2025 at 5.45pm UK
Stade du Roudourou
PSG logo

Brest
0 - 3
PSG


Chardonnet (74')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Vitinha (21' pen.), Dembele (45', 66')
Barcola (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Brest and Paris Saint-Germain, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Nantes 0-2 Brest
Friday, February 7 at 6pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 1-3 Paris Saint-Germain

PSG's astonishing head-to-head record against Brest over the past 40 years speaks for itself, and with Dembele unable to stop scoring at this present time, the hosts should not pose too many problems for the French champions. Whether Les Parisiens can finally go all the way this year remains to be seen, but as was the case just two Saturdays ago, Enrique's men will surely ease past Roy's side with multiple goals to boot. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 68.69%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Brest had a probability of 13.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.68%) and 0-1 (8.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.25%), while for a Brest win it was 2-1 (3.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawParis Saint-Germain
13.49% (0.0070000000000014 0.01) 17.83% (0.0030000000000001 0) 68.69% (-0.0069999999999908 -0.01)
Both teams to score 55.14% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.8% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)36.2% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.68%58.32% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.98% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)39.01% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.26% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)75.74% (-0.0039999999999907 -0)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.42% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)9.58% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
67.96% (-0.0049999999999955 -0)32.04% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Brest 13.49%
    Paris Saint-Germain 68.69%
    Draw 17.83%
BrestDrawParis Saint-Germain
2-1 @ 3.88% (0.0010000000000003 0)
1-0 @ 3.52% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-0 @ 1.66% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 1.43% (0.0010000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 1.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 13.49%
1-1 @ 8.25% (0.0010000000000012 0)
2-2 @ 4.55% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 3.74% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 17.83%
0-2 @ 10.28%
1-2 @ 9.68%
0-1 @ 8.76%
0-3 @ 8.04% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-3 @ 7.57%
0-4 @ 4.72% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
1-4 @ 4.44% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-3 @ 3.56%
0-5 @ 2.21% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
2-4 @ 2.09%
1-5 @ 2.08% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-5 @ 0.98%
Other @ 4.28%
Total : 68.69%

How you voted: Brest vs PSG

Brest
11.8%
Draw
12.6%
Paris Saint-Germain
75.6%
262
Head to Head
Feb 1, 2025 4pm
Gameweek 20
Brest
2-5
PSG
Del Castillo (50'), Ajorque (71')
Sima (36')
Dembele (29', 57', 62'), Ramos (89', 90+7')
Sep 14, 2024 8pm
Gameweek 4
PSG
3-1
Brest
Dembele (42', 74'), Ruiz (73')
Beraldo (26'), Mendes (28')
Del Castillo (29' pen.)
Camara (39'), Ajorque (49'), Chardonnet (59')
Feb 7, 2024 8.10pm
Round of 16
PSG
3-1
Brest
Mbappe (34'), Pereira (37'), Ramos (90+2')
Mounie (65')
Magnetti (14'), Brassier (60')
Brassier (69')
Jan 28, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 19
PSG
2-2
Brest
Asensio (38'), Kolo (45')
Hernandez (26'), Mbappe (53'), Zaire-Emery (58'), Barcola (90+2')
Barcola (90+4')
Camara (55'), Pereira Lage (80')
Lees-Melou (32'), Lala (53'), Brassier (59')
Oct 29, 2023 12pm
Gameweek 10
Brest
2-3
PSG
Mounie (43'), Le Douaron (52')
Roy (0'), Brassier (86'), Martin (87'), Bizot (88')
Zaire-Emery (16'), Mbappe (28', 89')
Hakimi (87'), Ruiz (88'), Mbappe (89'), Kolo (90+4')
rhs 2.0
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