

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.33%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.67%) and 0-2 (5.75%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 2-1 (8.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 37.25% ( | 24.42% ( | 38.33% ( |
| Both teams to score 59.88% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.07% ( | 42.92% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.67% ( | 65.33% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.11% ( | 22.89% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.35% ( | 56.65% ( |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.66% ( | 22.34% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.18% ( | 55.82% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% ( 1-0 @ 7.54% ( 2-0 @ 5.56% ( 3-1 @ 4.09% ( 3-2 @ 3.07% ( 3-0 @ 2.73% ( 4-1 @ 1.51% ( 4-2 @ 1.13% ( 4-0 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 2.28% Total : 37.25% | 1-1 @ 11.3% ( 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0-0 @ 5.11% ( 3-3 @ 1.53% ( Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.42% | 1-2 @ 8.47% ( 0-1 @ 7.67% ( 0-2 @ 5.75% ( 1-3 @ 4.23% ( 2-3 @ 3.12% ( 0-3 @ 2.87% ( 1-4 @ 1.59% ( 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 2.4% Total : 38.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 33 | 27 | 6 | 0 | 87 | 23 | 64 | 87 |
| 2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 33 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 92 | 41 | 51 | 72 |
| 3 | Stuttgart | 33 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 74 | 39 | 35 | 70 |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 75 | 37 | 38 | 64 |
| 5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 60 |
| 6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 49 | 48 | 1 | 46 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 64 | -2 | 43 |
| 8 | Freiburg | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 42 |
| 9 | Heidenheim | 33 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 39 |
| 10 | Augsburg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 44 | 53 | -9 | 39 |
| 12 | Wolfsburg | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 37 |
| 13 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 56 | 63 | -7 | 34 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 33 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 33 |
| 15 | Mainz 05Mainz | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 32 |
| 16 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 33 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 57 | -26 | 30 |
| 17 | FC Koln | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 27 |
| R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 30 | 82 | -52 | 17 |
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