

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 64.6%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 16.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.44%) and 1-0 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.74%), while for a Bayer Leverkusen win it was 1-2 (4.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 64.6% ( | 19.11% ( | 16.28% ( |
| Both teams to score 57.77% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.75% ( | 36.25% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.63% ( | 58.37% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.41% ( | 10.58% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 65.64% ( | 34.35% ( |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.62% ( | 35.38% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.86% ( | 72.14% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-1 @ 9.81% ( 2-0 @ 9.44% ( 1-0 @ 8.41% ( 3-1 @ 7.35% ( 3-0 @ 7.07% ( 4-1 @ 4.12% ( 4-0 @ 3.97% ( 3-2 @ 3.82% ( 4-2 @ 2.14% ( 5-1 @ 1.85% ( 5-0 @ 1.78% ( 5-2 @ 0.96% ( Other @ 3.87% Total : 64.6% | 1-1 @ 8.74% ( 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0-0 @ 3.74% ( 3-3 @ 1.32% ( Other @ 0.21% Total : 19.11% | 1-2 @ 4.54% ( 0-1 @ 3.89% ( 0-2 @ 2.02% ( 2-3 @ 1.77% ( 1-3 @ 1.57% ( Other @ 2.49% Total : 16.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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