Second-placed Bayer Leverkusen could lose their Bundesliga crown if they drop points on Saturday at BayArena against visitors Augsburg.
The champions' 1-1 draw with St Pauli last Sunday means they come into the weekend with 64 points, eight fewer than league-leaders Bayern Munich with just four games remaining, whereas opponents Augsburg are in 10th place with 43 points and held Eintracht Frankfurt to a 0-0 stalemate on April 20.
Match preview
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Leverkusen struggled to create many opportunities of note against St Pauli, with Patrik Schick's 32nd-miunte goal representing one of the team's two shots in the first half, and they generated just 0.27 xG from open play across the 90 minutes.
Boss Xabi Alonso's side have only scored three goals in their past four games, and their tally of 64 Bundesliga goals after 30 matchweeks is 25 fewer than they managed to score in their 34 league fixtures last term.
Die Schwarzroten will lose the title if they fail to win and Bayern achieve victory against Mainz 05 on Saturday, though the Bavarians did lose against their opponents in the top flight in December.
The hosts' clashes against Augsburg have been close affairs in recent seasons, with Leverkusen emerging victorious 2-1 in the reverse fixture on December 14, but they lost two and won two of their prior four encounters by one-goal margins in each of the four matches.
Die Werkself have drawn their past two outings and were beaten in four of their previous seven games, winning three times.
Leverkusen's form at BayArena has been unusually inconsistent having been held to stalemates in two and defeated in two of their five most recent matches at home.
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As for Augsburg, they were excellent from a defensive perspective against Eintracht Frankfurt, preventing the Eagles from producing any attempts in the first half while restricting them to just four touches of the ball inside the box.
The draw was the visitors' first clean sheet in four matches, though they have managed to prevent opposition teams from scoring in seven of their past 10.
Augsburg are currently four points from sixth-placed Mainz, who occupy the division's Conference League qualification spot, and that gap could shrink given Mainz play Bayern on Saturday.
Head coach Jess Thorup has only experienced one loss in 10 games, overseeing four victories and five draws.
Die Fuggerstadter's form on the road has been excellent considering they are unbeaten in their last five away from home, emerging triumphant on three occasions.
Team News
![Edmond Tapsoba of Bayer 04 Leverkusen during the DFL-Super Cup match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart at BayArena on August 17, 2024 [on August 21, 2024]](https://sm.imgix.net/24/34/edmond-tapsoba.jpg?w=640&h=480&auto=compress,format&fit=clip "Edmond Tapsoba of Bayer 04 Leverkusen during the DFL-Super Cup match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart at BayArena on August 17, 2024 [on August 21, 2024]")
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Leverkusen will not be able to select defenders Jeanuel Belocian, Mario Hermoso and Nordi Mukiele, with the latter the only one of trio who could return before the end of the season.
Alonso has frequently chosen Edmond Tapsoba, Jonathan Tah and Piero Hincapie together in a back three, and he may select the centre-backs on Saturday.
With attackers Alejo Sarco and Martin Terrier injured, fans will likely see a frontline featuring Nathan Tella, Florian Wirtz and Schick.
Visiting midfielder Arne Maier is suspended, so perhaps Kristijan Jakic and Frank Onyeka could play together on the weekend.
Striker Mergim Berisha has a chance to make an appearance before the end of the campaign, but given he will miss out against Leverkusen, Thorup may start Samuel Essende ahead of attackers Fredrik Jensen and Alexis Claude-Maurice.
Centre-backs Chrislain Matsima, Jeffrey Gouweleeuw and Cedric Zesiger could be fielded in defence in light of Noahkai Banks's hip injury.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapie; Frimpong, Xhaka, Palacios, Grimaldo; Tella, Wirtz; Schick
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Dahmen; Matsima, Gouweleeuw, Zesiger; Wolf, Jakic, Onyeka, Giannoulis; Jensen, Claude-Maurice; Essende
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Augsburg
It is difficult to see Leverkusen finding much joy against Augsburg's resilient defensive unit given they have struggled in the final third.
Considering the hosts know that the Bundesliga title will almost certainly be won by Bayern Munich, they could be low on confidence and may drop further points on the weekend.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
