On Sunday evening at the AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar and FC Twente will clash in the Eredivisie European competition playoff final, with a coveted spot in the UEFA Europa Conference League at stake.
This weekend's hosts ended the 2024-25 top-flight season in fifth place, with 57 points in 34 games, while the visitors finished in sixth, three points behind their upcoming opponents.
Match preview
© Imago
After back-to-back seasons finishing in the top four of the league standings, AZ Alkmaar were unable to do likewise this term, finishing seven points behind fourth-placed Utrecht with a record of 16 wins, nine draws and nine defeats.
Despite this, De Kaasboeren are still in the running to secure European football for next season, but they will first need to claim a victory this weekend against Twente, whom they beat home and away during the regular season.
Maarten Martens's side will enter this match in high spirits, having ended the season very well, winning three of their last four games, including a 3-2 victory over the upcoming opponents, before playing out a 1-1 draw on the final day of the league campaign.
In the semi-final of the European competition playoffs, AZ produced a commanding performance against Heerenveen, notching up a 4-1 victory thanks to a first-half hat-trick from Mexx Meerdink before Alexandre Penetra got on the scoresheet just after the hour mark.
The hosts are now unbeaten in their last four matches at AFAS Stadion (W2 D2 L0), and have only suffered two defeats on home soil since the start of December, which came against Sparta Rotterdam and Feyenoord.
© Imago
Meanwhile, Twente were eliminated from the Europa League in the intermediate round by Bodo/Glimt this season, and their European hopes for next term now rely on ending their three-match losing streak against AZ.
The Tukkers ended the regular season with three losses in their last five games, including back-to-back defeats against De Kaasboeren and Ajax in their final two, which saw them slip out of the top five in the league standings.
In the semi-final of the European competition playoffs, Joseph Oosting's side looked as though they were set for elimination after going down to 10 men and conceding two goals to trail NEC 2-1, but Sem Steijn levelled proceedings in the 74th minute, and Younes Taha got them over the line in extra time.
However, while that victory would have given the visitors a massive boost of confidence to bring into this match, their away record has been very poor over the second half of the season, as they have only managed a single win in their last 10 league outings, dating back to the start of December.
Team News
© Imago
Mexx Meerdink was withdrawn at the hour mark after netting his first-half hat-trick against Heerenveen last week, and he should return to lead the line in this match alongside Sven Mijnans.
The hosts have just one player listed as an injury absentee for this crucial clash in 19-year-old Jayden Addai, who has now missed the club's last four matches due to a knock.
Twente, meanwhile, will have to make do without the services of Alec Van Hoorenbeeck, who was the player sent off against NEC, and he will likely be replaced by Gustaf Lagerbielke in the starting lineup for this match.
Mees Hilgers and Sam Lammers are also set to sit out this match through injury, while this will be the last time we see this season's Golden Boot winner Sem Steijn in a Twente jersey, with the 23-year-old attacker set to join Feyenoord during the offseason.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Owusu-Oduro; Maikuma, Goes, Penetra, Wolfe; Koopmeiners, Smit; Van Bommel, Mijnans, Poku; Meerdink
FC Twente possible starting lineup:
Tyton; Van Rooij, Bruns, Lagerbielke, Kuipers; Kjoeloe, Sadilek; Vlap, Steijn, Rots; Van Wolfswinkel
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 FC Twente
While Twente did extremely well to come back against NEC despite playing the majority of the match with 10 men last week, they now face a much tougher assignment, taking on an AZ side that made light work of Heerenveen.
AZ have now won four of their last five matches (D1) and beat this opponent home and away during the regular season. With home advantage, we feel the hosts will get the victory in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 69.16%. A draw has a probability of 17.8% and a win for FC Twente has a probability of 13.07%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win is 2-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.27%), while for a FC Twente win it is 1-2 (3.78%).
Devesh Jaganath
