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Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 29, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
vs.
Velez Sarsfield

Preview: Penarol vs. Velez Sarsfield - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Velez Sarsfield, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both safely through to the knockout rounds of this year's Copa Libertadores, Group H top dogs Velez Sarsfield and second-placed Penarol will meet on Thursday night in Montevideo.

As the two teams have already clinched their place in the last 16, only first place in the group will be up for grabs at Estadio Campeon del Siglo.


Match preview

 Javier Cabrera celebrates a goal for Penarol on September 19, 2024© Imago

Fighting back from two goals down to preserve a long unbeaten home record in the Copa Libertadores, Penarol turned their penultimate group fixture on its head, beating Paraguay's Olimpia 3-2 to secure qualification.

After a disastrous first half, Leo Fernandez, Maximiliano Olivera and Eric Remedi all found the net, ensuring the Uruguayan giants would join Velez Sarsfield in the next stage of a competition they have won five times before.

Sitting second in Group H - level with Velez on 10 points, but trailing by two on goal difference - Penarol have also been in good form domestically: having finished their Apertura campaign with a flourish, they started the intermediate round with a win over Plaza Colonia last weekend.

In fact, Diego Aguirre's side are undefeated in 11 games across all competitions, since losing to Velez in Argentina nearly two months ago.

Furthermore, the Aurinegros are on a 21-match streak without a single home loss in the Libertadores, racking up no fewer than 18 wins since May 2017.

Velez Sarsfield's Valentin Gomez on October 18, 2024© Imago

Two late strikes decided the reverse fixture, as Velez scored twice in the closing stages to win 2-1 at El Fortin: Maher Carrizo equalised on 80 minutes, before Alvaro Montoro won it deep into stoppage time.

As a result, the Argentinian side have won four of five meetings with Penarol in South America's top competition ahead of the pair's battle for first place on Thursday.

En route to wrapping up their berth in the last 16, Velez have averaged over two goals per game, and they scored three last time out.

After sweeping aside Bolivian outsiders San Antonio Bulo Bulo on home turf, the Buenos Aires club joined the likes of domestic rivals River Plate and Brazilian heavyweights Palmeiras in qualifying with one round to spare.

In the first phase of Argentina's Primera Division, though, Guillermo Barros Schelotto's side finished down in 13th, with only four wins to show from 16 matches.

Soon after playing Penarol, the reigning national champions will tackle Estudiantes in the Supercopa Internacional before kicking off the league's second phase; so they now aim to build momentum by sealing top spot in Group H.

Penarol Copa Libertadores form:


Penarol form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W


Velez Sarsfield Copa Libertadores form:


Velez Sarsfield form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L



Team News

 Penarol manager Diego Aguirre  vs Colo Colo on January 1, 2025© Imago

Penarol coach Diego Aguirre will be without several players on Thursday: potentially joining a number of others on the sidelines, Nahuel Herrera is a doubt after picking up a muscle strain last week.

Felipe Avenatti (ankle), Tomas Olase, Eduardo Darias and rising star German Barbas (all ligaments) are also unavailable, while Camilo Mayada has been frozen out ahead of his upcoming departure.

In better news for the hosts, young centre-back Juan Rodriguez could return in time to make the bench, and main man Leo Fernandez is fit to feature up front. The latter - who scored in April's reverse fixture - not only leads this year's Libertadores assist rankings with four so far, but he is also one of just four players to set up at least 10 goals in the tournament this decade.

Meanwhile, Velez tend to rely on Maher Carrizo, who has scored four goals in the current campaign, leaving him just one shy of top spot in the scoring charts.

The visitors also have a long absence list: most notably, in-demand defender Valentin Gomez recently suffered an ankle injury. Another key man in last year's league title win, Parma target Christian Ordonez is ruled out by a muscular issue.

Braian Romero has yet to return from a hamstring strain, and Emanuel Mammana and Michael Santos will also miss out, but right-back Agustin Lagos has been cleared to play if required.


Penarol possible starting lineup:
De Amores; Milans, Coelho, Silva, Olivera; Perez, Sosa; Baez, Fernandez, Umpierrez; Silvera

Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Marchiori; Gordon, Fernandez, Quiros, E. Gomez; Machuca, Baeza, Bouzat; Pellegrini, Carrizo, Pizzini


SM words green background

We say: Penarol 1-1 Velez Sarsfield

Neither side will be at peak intensity for what is effectively a dead rubber, so a low-scoring draw could be on the cards.

Penarol boast a long loss-free streak as hosts in the Libertadores, so they will be keen to protect it; Velez, though, should do just enough to secure top spot.


For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.


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Written by
Jonathan O'Shea

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Data Failed

Who will win Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Penarol and Velez Sarsfield?

Penarol
Draw
Velez Sarsfield
Penarol
33.3%
Draw
33.3%
Velez Sarsfield
33.3%
3
Collect / Create New Data
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