Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 30

Apr 19, 2025 at 8.05pm UK

Stade Velodrome

Marseille
5 - 1
Montpellier

Greenwood (8' pen., 67'), Chancy Ndollo Bille (60' og.), Rowe (74'), Rabiot (90')
Rongier (15'), Rabiot (77')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Mincarelli (83')
Nzingoula (46'), Mouanga (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions

Last Game: Monaco 3-0 Marseille
Saturday, April 12 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Angers 2-0 Montpellier
Sunday, April 13 at 4.15pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 70.66%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 12.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 3-0 (8.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.

Result
Marseille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
70.66% ( -0.12)	16.88% ( 0.02)	12.47% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 55.61% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

65.87% (

0.17)

34.13% (

-0.17)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

43.99% (

0.19)

56.01% (

-0.19)

Marseille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.41% (

0.02)

8.59% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.32% (

0.04)

29.67% (

-0.04)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.84% (

0.27)

39.16% (

-0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.12% (

0.25)

75.88% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Marseille 70.65%

Montpellier HSC 12.47%

Draw 16.88%

Marseille	Draw	Montpellier HSC
2-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.05) 1-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.06) 3-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 4.77% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.64% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.5% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.34% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.02) 5-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.02% ( -0) 6-1 @ 0.96% ( 0) Other @ 3.04% Total : 70.65%	1-1 @ 7.74% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 3.36% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.18% Total : 16.88%	1-2 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.15% ( -0) 0-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.68% Total : 12.47%