

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 14.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.69%) and 1-2 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 1-0 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 14.05% ( | 21.26% ( | 64.68% ( |
| Both teams to score 45.12% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.73% ( | 50.26% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.78% ( | 72.21% ( |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.98% ( | 47.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.5% ( | 82.5% ( |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.17% ( | 14.83% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.87% ( | 43.12% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Cheltenham Town | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 5.26% ( 2-1 @ 3.79% ( 2-0 @ 1.99% ( 3-1 @ 0.95% ( 3-2 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.16% Total : 14.05% | 1-1 @ 10.04% 0-0 @ 6.97% ( 2-2 @ 3.62% ( Other @ 0.63% Total : 21.26% | 0-1 @ 13.3% ( 0-2 @ 12.69% ( 1-2 @ 9.58% ( 0-3 @ 8.08% ( 1-3 @ 6.1% ( 0-4 @ 3.86% ( 1-4 @ 2.91% ( 2-3 @ 2.3% ( 0-5 @ 1.47% 1-5 @ 1.11% ( 2-4 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 2.17% Total : 64.66% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Portsmouth | 46 | 28 | 13 | 5 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 97 |
| P | Derby CountyDerby | 46 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 78 | 37 | 41 | 92 |
| 3 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 86 | 51 | 35 | 87 |
| 4 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 46 | 25 | 9 | 12 | 89 | 61 | 28 | 84 |
| 5 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 79 | 56 | 23 | 77 |
| 6 | Barnsley | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 82 | 64 | 18 | 76 |
| 7 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 46 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 65 | 40 | 25 | 74 |
| 8 | Blackpool | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 73 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 57 | 46 | 11 | 71 |
| 10 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 60 | 55 | 5 | 65 |
| 11 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 65 |
| 12 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 46 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 63 | 56 | 7 | 62 |
| 13 | Exeter CityExeter | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 61 |
| 14 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 57 | 66 | -9 | 60 |
| 15 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 57 |
| 16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 46 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 64 | 65 | -1 | 53 |
| 17 | Reading | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 68 | 70 | -2 | 53 |
| 18 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 46 | 12 | 12 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 48 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 9 | 24 | 35 | 67 | -32 | 48 |
| 20 | Burton Albion | 46 | 12 | 10 | 24 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 46 |
| R | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 46 | 12 | 8 | 26 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 44 |
| R | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 46 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 49 | 72 | -23 | 43 |
| R | Port Vale | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 41 |
| R | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 41 | 81 | -40 | 30 |
| > League One Full Table | |||||||||
