Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 17.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 1-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.8%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-2 (4.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Villarreal | Draw | Osasuna |
| 61.56% ( | 20.84% ( | 17.6% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.47% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.07% ( | 41.93% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.66% ( | 64.34% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.88% ( | 13.12% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 60.24% ( | 39.76% ( |
| Osasuna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.69% ( | 37.3% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.91% ( | 74.09% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Villarreal | Draw | Osasuna |
| 2-0 @ 10.09% ( 2-1 @ 9.95% ( 1-0 @ 9.94% ( 3-0 @ 6.84% ( 3-1 @ 6.74% ( 4-0 @ 3.47% ( 4-1 @ 3.42% ( 3-2 @ 3.32% ( 4-2 @ 1.69% ( 5-0 @ 1.41% ( 5-1 @ 1.39% ( Other @ 3.29% Total : 61.55% | 1-1 @ 9.8% ( 2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0-0 @ 4.89% ( 3-3 @ 1.09% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 20.84% | 1-2 @ 4.83% ( 0-1 @ 4.83% ( 0-2 @ 2.38% ( 2-3 @ 1.61% ( 1-3 @ 1.59% ( Other @ 2.36% Total : 17.6% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
| 11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
| 13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
| 17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
| 18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
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