

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 66.19%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 14.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.26%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.41%), while for a Osasuna win it was 0-1 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Osasuna | 
| 66.19% (  -0.02) | 19.8% (  0.36) | 14.01% (  -0.34) | 
| Both teams to score 49.57% (  -2.13) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.78% (  -2.36) | 44.22% (  2.36) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.4% (  -2.34) | 66.6% (  2.34) | 
| Atletico Madrid Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 87.51% (  -0.7) | 12.49% (  0.7) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.54% (  -1.48) | 38.46% (  1.48) | 
| Osasuna Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 56.64% (  -1.96) | 43.36% (  1.97) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.4% (  -1.69) | 79.59% (  1.69) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Osasuna | 
| 2-0 @ 11.71% (  0.56) 1-0 @ 11.26% (  0.83) 2-1 @ 9.79% (  -0.04) 3-0 @ 8.13% (  0.18) 3-1 @ 6.79% (  -0.22) 4-0 @ 4.23% (  -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.53% (  -0.22) 3-2 @ 2.84% (  -0.26) 5-0 @ 1.76% (  -0.06) 4-2 @ 1.48% (  -0.18) 5-1 @ 1.47% (  -0.13) Other @ 3.2% Total : 66.18% | 1-1 @ 9.41% (  0.21) 0-0 @ 5.41% (  0.54) 2-2 @ 4.09% (  -0.25) Other @ 0.88% Total : 19.8% | 0-1 @ 4.52% (  0.22) 1-2 @ 3.93% (  -0.13) 0-2 @ 1.89% (  -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.14% (  -0.14) 1-3 @ 1.1% (  -0.1) Other @ 1.43% Total : 14.01% | 

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 36 | 27 | 4 | 5 | 97 | 36 | 61 | 85 | 
| 2 | Real Madrid | 36 | 24 | 6 | 6 | 74 | 38 | 36 | 78 | 
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 20 | 10 | 6 | 60 | 29 | 31 | 70 | 
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 67 | 
| 5 | Villarreal | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 47 | 17 | 64 | 
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 36 | 16 | 11 | 9 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 59 | 
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 52 | 
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 48 | 
| 9 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 48 | 
| 10 | Mallorca | 36 | 13 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 47 | 
| 11 | Valencia | 36 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 45 | 
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 36 | 12 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 43 | 
| 13 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 41 | 
| 14 | GironaGirona | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 41 | 
| 15 | Getafe | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 39 | 
| 16 | Espanyol | 36 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 38 | 49 | -11 | 39 | 
| 17 | AlavesAlaves | 36 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 38 | 
| 18 | Leganes | 36 | 7 | 13 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 34 | 
| R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 36 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 40 | 58 | -18 | 32 | 
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 36 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 26 | 86 | -60 | 16 | 
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