

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.64%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 18.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.67%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for an Alaves win it was 1-0 (6.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 18.09% | 24.27% | 57.64% |
| Both teams to score 44.92% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.82% | 55.18% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.58% | 76.42% |
| Alaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.45% | 44.55% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.43% | 80.57% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81% | 19% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.44% | 50.56% |
| Score Analysis |
| Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 6.85% 2-1 @ 4.6% 2-0 @ 2.77% 3-1 @ 1.24% 3-2 @ 1.03% Other @ 1.62% Total : 18.09% | 1-1 @ 11.36% 0-0 @ 8.47% 2-2 @ 3.82% Other @ 0.62% Total : 24.26% | 0-1 @ 14.05% 0-2 @ 11.67% 1-2 @ 9.44% 0-3 @ 6.46% 1-3 @ 5.22% 0-4 @ 2.68% 1-4 @ 2.17% 2-3 @ 2.11% Other @ 3.82% Total : 57.63% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | GironaGirona | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 8 | 15 | 22 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 17 |
| 7 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 8 | Valencia | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | Real BetisBetis | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Getafe | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 10 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Mallorca | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 | AlavesAlaves | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 9 |
| 18 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 6 |
| 19 | Granada | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 | Almeria | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 3 |
| > La Liga Full Table | |||||||||
