Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 50.23%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 26.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union SG would win this match.