Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 42.92%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 34.06% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.62%) and 0-2 (5.76%). The likeliest Lugano win was 2-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.