Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Vitesse | 
| 47.71% (  0) | 24.02% (  -0) | 28.27% (  -0) | 
| Both teams to score 57.85% (  -0) | 
| Goals | 
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 
| 55.9% (  0) | 44.1% (  -0) | 
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 | 
| 33.52% (  0) | 66.48% (  -0) | 
| Heerenveen Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 81.38% (  0) | 18.62% (  -0) | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.08% (  0) | 49.92% (  -0) | 
| Vitesse Goals | 
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 | 
| 71.09% (  -0) | 28.92% | 
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.21% (  -0) | 64.8% (  0) | 
| Score Analysis | 
| Heerenveen | Draw | Vitesse | 
| 2-1 @ 9.44% 1-0 @ 9.05% 2-0 @ 7.61% 3-1 @ 5.29% (  0) 3-0 @ 4.26% (  0) 3-2 @ 3.28% 4-1 @ 2.22% 4-0 @ 1.79% (  0) 4-2 @ 1.38% Other @ 3.39% Total : 47.71% | 1-1 @ 11.23% 2-2 @ 5.86% 0-0 @ 5.39% (  -0) 3-3 @ 1.36% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.02% | 1-2 @ 6.97% 0-1 @ 6.68% 0-2 @ 4.15% (  -0) 1-3 @ 2.88% (  -0) 2-3 @ 2.42% 0-3 @ 1.71% (  -0) Other @ 3.46% Total : 28.27% | 
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 25 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 
| 2 | Ajax | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 70 | 25 | 45 | 55 | 
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 53 | 
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 52 | 
| 5 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 | 
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 43 | 
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 38 | 
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 | 
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 31 | 
| 10 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 31 | 
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 29 | 
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 | 
| 13 | Vitesse | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 23 | 
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 55 | -26 | 23 | 
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 | 
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 20 | 
| 17 | Groningen | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 17 | 
| 18 | Cambuur | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 | 
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