

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 71.27%. A draw had a probability of 16.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 11.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 1-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Feyenoord | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 71.27% ( | 16.85% ( | 11.88% ( |
| Both teams to score 53.66% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.34% ( | 35.66% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.28% ( | 57.72% ( |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.16% ( | 8.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.72% ( | 30.28% ( |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.86% ( | 41.14% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.32% ( | 77.68% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Feyenoord | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-0 @ 10.7% ( 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 1-0 @ 8.82% ( 3-0 @ 8.65% ( 3-1 @ 7.69% ( 4-0 @ 5.25% ( 4-1 @ 4.66% ( 3-2 @ 3.41% ( 5-0 @ 2.55% ( 5-1 @ 2.26% ( 4-2 @ 2.07% ( 6-0 @ 1.03% ( 5-2 @ 1% ( 6-1 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.76% Total : 71.27% | 1-1 @ 7.84% ( 2-2 @ 4.22% ( 0-0 @ 3.64% ( 3-3 @ 1.01% ( Other @ 0.15% Total : 16.85% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0-2 @ 1.44% ( 2-3 @ 1.25% ( 1-3 @ 1.03% ( Other @ 1.45% Total : 11.88% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 31 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 76 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 35 | 47 | 68 |
| 3 | Ajax | 31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 63 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 61 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 54 | 26 | 28 | 55 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 53 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 48 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 37 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 30 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 28 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 28 |
| R | Groningen | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 61 | -32 | 18 |
| R | Cambuur | 31 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 16 |
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