Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Harrogate Town win with a probability of 57.26%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Rochdale had a probability of 19.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Harrogate Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for a Rochdale win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Rochdale |
| 57.26% ( | 23.07% ( | 19.67% ( |
| Both teams to score 50.96% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.53% ( | 48.47% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.4% ( | 70.6% ( |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.32% ( | 16.68% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.44% ( | 46.56% ( |
| Rochdale Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.16% ( | 38.84% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.43% ( | 75.57% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Rochdale |
| 1-0 @ 11.6% 2-0 @ 10.38% ( 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 3-0 @ 6.2% ( 3-1 @ 5.87% ( 4-0 @ 2.78% ( 3-2 @ 2.77% ( 4-1 @ 2.63% ( 4-2 @ 1.24% ( 5-0 @ 0.99% ( 5-1 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.02% Total : 57.25% | 1-1 @ 10.97% ( 0-0 @ 6.48% ( 2-2 @ 4.65% ( Other @ 0.97% Total : 23.07% | 0-1 @ 6.13% ( 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0-2 @ 2.9% ( 1-3 @ 1.64% ( 2-3 @ 1.47% ( 0-3 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 1.44% Total : 19.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Leyton Orient | 46 | 26 | 13 | 7 | 61 | 34 | 27 | 91 |
| P | Stevenage | 46 | 24 | 13 | 9 | 61 | 39 | 22 | 85 |
| P | Northampton TownNorthampton | 46 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 83 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 79 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 66 | 43 | 23 | 76 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 61 | 43 | 18 | 76 |
| 7 | Salford City | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 54 | 18 | 75 |
| 8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 72 | 55 | 17 | 75 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 62 |
| 10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 61 | 55 | 6 | 61 |
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 16 | 13 | 17 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 61 |
| 12 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 58 |
| 13 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 58 |
| 14 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 58 |
| 15 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53 | 56 | -3 | 57 |
| 16 | Walsall | 46 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 55 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 55 |
| 18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 55 |
| 19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 52 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 49 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 48 | 60 | -12 | 48 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 48 | 71 | -23 | 46 |
| R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 52 | 78 | -26 | 43 |
| R | Rochdale | 46 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 46 | 70 | -24 | 38 |
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