

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7%) and 0-2 (5.8%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 35.02% ( | 23.51% ( | 41.47% ( |
| Both teams to score 63% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.26% ( | 38.74% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.95% ( | 61.05% ( |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.84% ( | 22.16% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.45% ( | 55.55% ( |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.93% ( | 19.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.34% ( | 50.66% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 7.95% ( 1-0 @ 6.37% ( 2-0 @ 4.8% ( 3-1 @ 3.99% ( 3-2 @ 3.31% ( 3-0 @ 2.41% ( 4-1 @ 1.5% ( 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 4-0 @ 0.91% ( Other @ 2.54% Total : 35.02% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 2-2 @ 6.59% ( 0-0 @ 4.23% ( 3-3 @ 1.83% ( Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0-1 @ 7% ( 0-2 @ 5.8% ( 1-3 @ 4.83% ( 2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0-3 @ 3.21% ( 1-4 @ 2% ( 2-4 @ 1.51% ( 0-4 @ 1.33% ( Other @ 3.41% Total : 41.47% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 20 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 63 | 9 | 54 | 56 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 20 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 53 | 17 | 36 | 46 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
| 5 | Ajax | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 35 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 30 |
| 7 | NECNijmegen | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 39 | 33 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | PEC Zwolle | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 30 | 32 | -2 | 26 |
| 9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 25 | 27 | -2 | 26 |
| 10 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 23 |
| 13 | Heerenveen | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 22 |
| 14 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 21 |
| 15 | Heracles | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 19 |
| 16 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 15 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 47 | -26 | 12 |
| 18 | Vitesse | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 42 | -29 | 12 |
| > Eredivisie Full Table | |||||||||
