Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 28, 2025 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
1 - 0
Atletico Nacional

Oliva (88')
Boggio (3'), Fabrizio Calione Fuentes (31'), Morales (43')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Jose Arias (46'), Stiven Viveros Rodallega (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Nacional and Atletico Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Progreso
Saturday, May 24 at 12.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Atletico Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Atletico Nacional 1-0 Bahia
Wednesday, May 14 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 49.24%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 25.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for an Atletico Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match.

Result
NacionalDrawAtletico Nacional
49.24% (0.18 0.18)25.55% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)25.21% (-0.171 -0.17)
Both teams to score 50.39% (-0.13500000000001 -0.14)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.29% (-0.097000000000001 -0.1)52.71% (0.098999999999997 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.66% (-0.084 -0.08)74.34% (0.084000000000003 0.08)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.58% (0.039000000000001 0.04)21.42% (-0.038 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.57% (0.058999999999997 0.06)54.43% (-0.058 -0.06)
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.12% (-0.203 -0.2)35.88% (0.203 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.35% (-0.207 -0.21)72.65% (0.20700000000001 0.21)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 49.24%
    Atletico Nacional 25.21%
    Draw 25.54%
NacionalDrawAtletico Nacional
1-0 @ 11.84% (0.06 0.06)
2-1 @ 9.35% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.12% (0.056999999999999 0.06)
3-1 @ 4.8% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
3-0 @ 4.69% (0.034 0.03)
3-2 @ 2.46% (-0.01 -0.01)
4-1 @ 1.85% (0.006 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.81% (0.016 0.02)
4-2 @ 0.95% (-0.003 -0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 49.24%
1-1 @ 12.13% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 7.69% (0.03 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.79% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 0.93%
Total : 25.54%
0-1 @ 7.88% (-0.013 -0.01)
1-2 @ 6.22% (-0.038 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.04% (-0.029 -0.03)
1-3 @ 2.13% (-0.024 -0.02)
2-3 @ 1.64% (-0.017 -0.02)
0-3 @ 1.38% (-0.017 -0.02)
Other @ 1.93%
Total : 25.21%

How you voted: Nacional vs Atletico Nacional

Nacional
0.0%
Draw
9.1%
Atletico Nacional
90.9%
11
Head to Head
Apr 3, 2025 3am
Group Stage
Atletico Nacional
3-0
Nacional
Hinestroza (45+2'), Stiven Viveros Rodallega (55'), Morelos (72')
Andres Gil Mosquera (88')

Recoba (59')
May 13, 2021 3am
Group Stage
Atletico Nacional
0-0
Nacional
> Preview
Apr 28, 2021 11pm
Group Stage
Nacional
4-4
Atletico Nacional
Bergessio (12', 51', 64'), Fernandez (45+4')
Martinez (17'), Cantera (90+4')
Corujo (42')
Barrera (8', 85'), Andrade (45+2'), Orihuela (74' og.)
Mosquera (44'), Duque (57'), Banguero (71'), Castro (90+3')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
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