Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest Sao Paulo win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.