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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 70.28%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 1-0 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stuttgart would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stuttgart | Draw | Freiburg |
| 70.28% | 17.2% | 12.52% ( |
| Both teams to score 54.51% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.4% ( | 35.6% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.34% ( | 57.66% ( |
| Stuttgart Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.95% | 9.05% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.21% ( | 30.79% ( |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.93% ( | 40.07% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.29% ( | 76.71% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Stuttgart | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-0 @ 10.46% 2-1 @ 9.57% ( 1-0 @ 8.71% ( 3-0 @ 8.38% ( 3-1 @ 7.66% 4-0 @ 5.03% 4-1 @ 4.6% ( 3-2 @ 3.51% ( 5-0 @ 2.42% 5-1 @ 2.21% ( 4-2 @ 2.11% ( 5-2 @ 1.01% 6-0 @ 0.97% Other @ 3.63% Total : 70.27% | 1-1 @ 7.97% ( 2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0-0 @ 3.63% ( 3-3 @ 1.07% ( Other @ 0.16% Total : 17.2% | 1-2 @ 3.64% 0-1 @ 3.32% ( 0-2 @ 1.52% 2-3 @ 1.33% 1-3 @ 1.11% Other @ 1.6% Total : 12.52% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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