Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.79%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 29.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.85%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Holstein Kiel
47.79% ( -1.41)	23.17% ( 0.38)	29.04% ( 1.03)

Both teams to score 61.41% (

-0.58)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.35% (

-1.1)

39.65% (

1.1)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38% (

-1.15)

62% (

1.15)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.13% (

-0.93)

16.87% (

0.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.1% (

-1.68)

46.9% (

1.68)

Holstein Kiel Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.87% (

0.13)

26.13% (

-0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.8% (

0.18)

61.2% (

-0.18)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 47.79%

Holstein Kiel 29.04%

Draw 23.16%

Freiburg	Draw	Holstein Kiel
2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 6.98% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 5.56% ( -0.22) 3-0 @ 4.14% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.73% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.18) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.14) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.11) Other @ 4.2% Total : 47.79%	1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 4.41% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.16%	1-2 @ 7.07% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 5.92% ( 0.32) 0-2 @ 3.97% ( 0.23) 1-3 @ 3.16% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.78% ( 0.11) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 29.04%