
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 49.57%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 2-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 27.59% ( | 22.83% ( | 49.57% ( |
| Both teams to score 61.47% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.93% ( | 39.07% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.6% ( | 61.39% ( |
| Holstein Kiel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.19% ( | 26.81% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.9% ( | 62.1% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.99% ( | 16.01% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.67% ( | 45.33% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 6.81% ( 1-0 @ 5.65% ( 2-0 @ 3.72% ( 3-1 @ 2.99% ( 3-2 @ 2.74% ( 3-0 @ 1.63% ( 4-1 @ 0.98% ( 4-2 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.17% Total : 27.59% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0-0 @ 4.29% ( 3-3 @ 1.67% ( Other @ 0.28% Total : 22.82% | 1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0-1 @ 7.86% ( 0-2 @ 7.2% ( 1-3 @ 5.79% ( 0-3 @ 4.4% ( 2-3 @ 3.81% ( 1-4 @ 2.65% ( 0-4 @ 2.02% ( 2-4 @ 1.75% ( 1-5 @ 0.97% ( Other @ 3.64% Total : 49.57% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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