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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.65%) and 1-3 (5.22%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 2-1 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Hoffenheim | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 35% ( | 22.25% ( | 42.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 67.83% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.55% ( | 32.44% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.92% ( | 54.08% ( |
| Hoffenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.72% ( | 19.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.98% ( | 51.02% ( |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.03% ( | 15.96% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.74% ( | 45.26% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Hoffenheim | Draw | RB Leipzig |
| 2-1 @ 7.65% ( 1-0 @ 5.07% ( 3-1 @ 4.2% ( 2-0 @ 4.17% ( 3-2 @ 3.85% ( 3-0 @ 2.29% ( 4-1 @ 1.73% ( 4-2 @ 1.59% ( 4-3 @ 0.97% ( 4-0 @ 0.94% ( Other @ 2.55% Total : 35% | 1-1 @ 9.3% ( 2-2 @ 7.02% ( 0-0 @ 3.08% ( 3-3 @ 2.36% ( Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.25% | 1-2 @ 8.53% ( 0-1 @ 5.65% ( 1-3 @ 5.22% ( 0-2 @ 5.18% ( 2-3 @ 4.29% ( 0-3 @ 3.17% ( 1-4 @ 2.39% ( 2-4 @ 1.97% ( 0-4 @ 1.45% ( 3-4 @ 1.08% ( Other @ 3.81% Total : 42.75% |

| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 99 | 32 | 67 | 82 |
| 2 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 19 | 12 | 3 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 69 |
| 3 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 68 | 46 | 22 | 60 |
| 4 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 57 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 55 |
| 6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 51 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 54 | 57 | -3 | 51 |
| 9 | Stuttgart | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 64 | 53 | 11 | 50 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 55 | 57 | -2 | 45 |
| 11 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 56 | 54 | 2 | 43 |
| 12 | Augsburg | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 43 |
| 13 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 40 |
| 14 | St Pauli | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 28 | 41 | -13 | 32 |
| 15 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Heidenheim | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 29 |
| R | Holstein Kiel | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 49 | 80 | -31 | 25 |
| R | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 25 |
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